Have Corporate Earnings Reached a Peak? – Loomis – 10.21.21

Summary:

Now On Demand. Corporate health held up remarkably well through the worst of the pandemic and profits have surged in the aftermath. As companies contend with slowing growth momentum, inflationary pressure and fading fiscal and monetary support, some investors are wondering if it can last.

Join the Co-Directors of Loomis Sayles’ Macro Strategies team, Mike Crowell and Tom Fahey, and Senior Macro Strategies Analyst Craig Burelle as they pull back the curtain on corporate health. Learn how the team uses macroeconomic signals and quantitative models to help shape their views on corporate health and market valuations. The discussion will cover:

• Where we are in the credit cycle, and how that could influence borrowing and spending patterns, investor behavior, and asset prices
• The outlook for corporate profits and earnings
• What we can learn from quantitative models that measure risk premia and corporate health

Speakers:

Michael Crowell is a vice president, director of quantitative research risk analysis (QRRA) and co-director of macro strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Company. As director of QRRA, he works with the portfolio teams primarily across four dimensions: risk analysis, relative value, portfolio construction, and product and process design and refinement. Michael joined Loomis Sayles in 2007 as a client portfolio analyst. He later became a quantitative analyst for the QRRA group where he helped to build the foundation of our proprietary risk model infrastructure and worked with portfolio managers on customizing this framework to fit their specific investment processes. In 2013, Michael was promoted to a senior investment specialist. He began his investment industry career as a unit manager at Investors Bank & Trust, where he led a team of 10 employees in fund accounting and NAV generation for a family of six hedge funds. He earned a BS from Villanova University.

Tom Fahey is a vice president and co-director of macro strategies at Loomis, Sayles & Company. He analyzes global investment conditions, conducts macrooriented research to determine relative value between countries, currencies and asset classes, and develops tools and processes to facilitate investment decisions. In addition, Tom is a co-portfolio manager for the Loomis Sayles world credit asset strategy. He has 26 years of investment industry experience and joined Loomis Sayles in 2010. Previously, Tom was a senior portfolio manager and global bond strategist at Standish Mellon Asset Management. Prior to joining Standish, he worked at The Bank Credit Analyst (BCA) Research Group as a foreign exchange strategist. Tom earned a BA from St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia and an MA from Concordia University in Quebec.

Craig Burelle is a vice president and senior macro strategies analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company. As a member of the macro strategies group, his key areas of focus are split between US economics and interest rates, and global equity strategy. Craig joined Loomis Sayles in 2010 as a macro strategies associate. He earned a BS in finance and economics from the University of Massachusetts, Boston and a Master of Liberal Arts degree in finance from Harvard University.