Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist and Alejandra Grindal, Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group discuss the 2020 U.S. election, and its potential impact on global markets.
So far, 2020 has delivered historical levels of market volatility. The ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with social unrest has left a tremendous amount of uncertainty for investors. Clissold and Grindal point to historical trends and past election cycles as key indicators for the market’s reaction to potential election outcomes. The firm’s research shows that the Dow has seen the biggest jump following an incumbent republican president’s victory and the biggest drop when an incumbent republican loses. Their research also shows that the last 6 recession-time presidents have lost re-election. Other factors to consider include: rising corporate taxes, potential policy changes and who has control of the house. Cissold and Grindal also encourage advisors to keep a close eye on small-cap and value stocks.
Founded in 1980, Ned Davis Research is known for its quantitative research and 360-degree approach to investment recommendations. NDR incorporates fundamentals, market sentiment, and macroeconomics into its transparent ETF models.
Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.
Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles.
To learn more, register for Ned Davis Research’s webcast: The 2020 Election Playbook.
Market volatility is certainly expected given what 2020 has delivered to global investors thus far this year. Investors are navigating a pandemic, recession, social unrest, rioting, protests and unprecedented bi-partisanship. Join us for an in-depth examination of how potential policies may play out in global markets, investor preparation and asset allocation considerations as we cover:
- Trump’s reelection bid
- What a Biden presidency could mean for investors
- The election cycle
- Political power, trends and a historical perspective